Washington--When We Will Know the Outcome

A message from the Approve Referendum 71 campaign:

The Approve Referendum 71 campaign wants to remind you that Washington state is now an all vote- by-mail state (with the exception of a small number of voters in one of 39 of Washington’s counties). Unlike some vote by mail states where ballots must be received by Election Day, in Washington state ballots only have to be postmarked no later than Election Day (or dropped in an official ballot drop off boxes by 8:00 pm), meaning ballots are often arriving as late as a week after Election Day. We are sharing this information now because we recognize our system of voting in Washington state is unique and some may draw inaccurate conclusions based on the early returns on Election Night. Close results should not be seen as strength by the opposition or indicative of final results.

What does this mean for when we will know results about Referendum 71?

It may be several days before we know the outcome of the election. Election night trends may not be meaningful unless they show Referendum 71 being approved, in which case, the outcome will be almost certain. This is because, as described below, King County (the most populous county, including Seattle) will be slow to report its ballots.

Why might we NOT know the results of this election on November 3^rd?

King County, which includes Seattle, is our most populous county and an important part of our base. It will only report once on election night at 8:15 p.m. Turnout to date among King County voters is uncharacteristically low­—just 20 percent as of Oct. 30—likely due to a hotly contested mayor’s race in Seattle where many voters are still undecided. Ultimately, turnout in King County is expected to be heavier than usual for an off-year election due to two open races for Seattle Mayor and the County Executive. We are confident that voters in King County will vote in large numbers due to our GOTV efforts and that of other campaigns as well, but those counts may not be reflected in Tuesday’s results.

In addition, it takes about two days for a ballot to be processed in King County, meaning that ballots mailed after the last pick up on Saturday will likely not be counted until after Election Day. And the sheer volume of ballots received in King County in the last few days of the election means that it takes days to count them. This is the first general election for which King County is full vote-by-mail and trends show that former poll voters are holding onto their ballots.

Finally, there is much less on the ballot in rural counties and in 2007 they mailed in their ballots early, while more urban areas mailed their ballots later.

Are there examples of how results on election night have changed before certification?

In 2007, our last off-year election, an initiative supported by the progressive community was failing on Election Night by 38,000 votes. A full week later the measure was winning and ultimately won by more than 10,000 votes.

How can we most accurately describe the election results for Ref. 71 on November 3^rd?

The Approve 71 campaign is reminding voters that election night returns may not show Referendum 71 being approved, or showing as wide a margin of support as will be reflected in the final results. Washington is a vote-by-mail state. King County, which includes Seattle, is Washington’s most populous county and is expected to strongly favor approving Referendum 71. King County will not have many of its ballots counted until several days after the election. During the 2007 election, a similar dynamic occurred with an education measure supported by the progressive community known as “Simple Majority.” On election night, this measure appeared to be failing by 38,000 votes, but ultimately passed by over 10,000 votes. And in this election, voters seem to be holding onto their ballots longer because they are undecided about the Seattle mayoral race.

Lastly, it is important to remember that this is an off-year election. Nearly half of all registered voters are not expected to vote. The electorate in off-year elections tends to be older and more conservative than in general election years (even-numbered years). Even a slim margin of victory for approving Referendum 71 would suggest very broad support across the entire electorate for the domestic partnership law.